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The sensex rallied for the third day today adding 197 points on heavy buying on realty companies and heavy buying in Reliance Industries.

The Nse index Nifty also ended higher by 45.65 points, The rally today was backed by Reliance Industries and Infosys following strengthening of dollar.

Reliance was up by 5.49 percent following reports that the company has reached agreement with fertilizer firms on sale of gas from its eastern offshore, Realty index was up by 6.32 per cent.

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4% across-the-board excise duty cut to be continued beyond 31 March, 2009.

To cut service tax to 10%.

To cut excise duty by additional 2%.

Excise duty on bulk cement to be 8% or Rs 230 per metric tonne, whichever is higher.

- Naptha exempted from customs duty to provide relief to the power sector; extends customs duty in Naptha beyond March 31, 2009.

“The general relaxation in the excise duty rates by 4% was made with effect from 7/12/08 and it is now being extended beyond March 31, 2009. In addition, it has now been decided to reduce the general rate of central excise duty from 10% to 8%,” Mukherjee said, while addressing the Lok Sabha.

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Indian markets were on a winning streak as they ended in green back on positive points from global markets on wednesday, National Stock Exchange’s 50-share Nifty closed the day 0.69 per cent higher at 2803. Intraday, it touched a high of 2842.20 and low of 2780.70.

Nifty February futures provisionally ended at a widening discount of 28 points against 19 points on Tuesday. The contract price gained 0.39 per cent and open interest added 16 lakh shares. The sell quantity was nearly 1.5 times that of buy. This indicates build up of short positions in the contract at higher levels.

Reliance Industries February futures slipped 0.25 per cent while open interest added 1.94 lakh shares. The contract was provisionally ended at a discount of Rs 11, indicating modest short build up. State Bank of India February contract has also attracted modest short positions.

While DLF futures jumped 6.28 per cent, Educomp gained 2.84 per cent and Bharati Airtel rose 1.48 per cent. L&T fell 0.47 per cent while OI added 2.2 lakh
shares. ICICI Bank dropped 1 per cent adding 4.42 lakh shares in OI.

Source: Economic times

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HDIL, Lost almost 19% during the week which saw huge selling in realty stocks, even the sector majors like Unitech, DLF, and India Bull Real estate lost anywhere between 15 to 18%.

Stocks like DLF and unitech which are facing problem in repayments of debts to the mutual funds are among worst hit.

The traders feel that these companies may not come out with good results and given the low demand form housing sector and other companies put their explanation on hold also leading to prusre on these stocks.

Though these stocks look attractive form the market price, but one need to wait some time before investing in these stocks as more clarity required on this sector.

Almost all real estate shares closed in red except Akruti City. Akruti City Closed in green on the news that the company promoters have paid the loan and got the pledged share released.

Akruti , has high promoter holding, the share price of the company has closed at 797.85

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Financial results announced by the companies so far has been mixed with banks doing good and serves sector also more less in line, but the mid cap stocks seem have not performed as expected,

Effect of the slowdown and higher interest expense and cost of raw martial going high has bought the profits down and markets to its lower channel and support at 2700-2650.

Market analyst feel once the market breaks this level the Nifty may see father selling and come down and test 2200.

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L&T ups stake in Satyam to 12% from 4%( market Buzz)

Lnt has done bulk buying in today trade

L&T has increased the stake in satyam computer to protect the companies intrest in Satyam.

LNT has not yet confirmed the same, and market buzz is that company may look for management control.

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Punj Llyod which lost quite lot on Friday, has resistance at 125-130 if the stock dose not cross these level it may test its next support level of 95.

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Deepak Fertilizer and Petrochemicals, is mainly into production of chemicals which accounts for 66% of its revenues and 87% of its net profits and manufacturing of fertilizers accounting 31.8% of revenues and 11% of Net Profit. The company has recently forayed in the realty sector with the setup of a specialty Mall in Pune, which also generated almost 4 crores of revenues in Sep 08 quarter.

The company in the last quarter has announced a net profit increase of 91% amounting to 41.81 crores and jump of 65% in revenues to 369 crores. The company during the last financial year had touched 1000 crores of revenue for the year and is well on track this year to surpass it by crossing 700 crores of revenue in the first half. The EPS declared for the half year is 9.83 compared to 11.37 declared for FY08.

The company is currently trading at 5 times its last year earnings. At the 52 Week high, the valuation had jumped to 15 times on 6-Jan-2008. With the companies diversification into realty providing it a steady stream of revenue and hopes of a brighter future for its fertilizer business and the drop in prices of raw materials especially Naphtha gives a brighter cost future for the company. The only risk being the downturn in the economy leading to depression in prices and sales. But we expect the company to be better placed to face the uncertain future with its past execution strength, strong management and well planned diversification. The valuation at 4 times is quite attractive considering the high dividend yield of 4%.

Technicals
The company made a 52 week high of 178 on 2-Jan-2008 and a 52 Week low of 40 on 27-Oct-2008. Its all time high was 178 made on 2-Jan-2008. The price has fallen sharply since and is now taking support at 50 levels. It is forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern with potential upside target of 69 in the short term . Once it breaks above the 69 resistance it can move up to 90. On the downside, the stop loss should be placed at 47 which can be broken if there is fresh panic in the markets.

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Year 2008 has been not so good for the Indian stock markets, as the Nifty has lost nearly 53% in year’s time. The fall in prices has sharp and volatile and many large caps and other stocks have seen heavy selling and lost most of their gain achieved in last few years.
Some of the stocks lost to the extent of more than 90% and have become best buys, but one need to excises great degree of study before making investments in these companies.
There are some good companies which have lost quite a bit and have become good buys at current market prices.
These stocks have been picked based on technical analysis and can be invested only with long term view. Investor with 1-2 year holding period can buy these stocks for good returns.

portfolio of 9 best stocks with 10 lakhs investment for referance.  

Stocks to Invest in 2009

CMP As on 26-12-2008
As current markets are showing some kind of weakness and volatility so one has to understand even these stocks may see some downside from current levels. But in long term these stocks will see good upside.

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Cairn India which dose oil exploration business in India having its main focus on Rajasthan, India has stuck more oil and gas.

The company which has the production sharing contract with ONGC for this oil field in which the cairn hold 70%

The companies share price has trading between 130-170 in recent times, the market analyst feel the stock is good long term buy.

Though the fall crude oil price may act as dampener in the share price movement and the analyst feel the stock can touch 300-320 levels in long term.

Investor with the long term can buy the stock for handsome returns

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